The following article Prisons Said to Skew Jobless Rate, in the News and Observer, incensed me so much I had to take a day or two to write about it. The article basically says that if you included prisoners and military to the number of of unemployed people it would increase the jobless rate. No duh. If you add a million and a half, or more, people to the number of people looking for work you it would increase the jobless rate.
If you add the number of illegal aliens, wait, undocumented workers I mean, then it would affect the job market too. I think this is an attempt either point out the researchers belief too many people are in prison or an attempt to show the economy is weaker than we think.
The problem with the report, prisoners are not eligible to work so they can not be include in the jobless rate. Military people are already working. If anything they should be added as employed workers. They are working after all. But they are not eligible to be included in the employment rate also.
So to sum up, when you include all categories that are eligible to be counted, the jobless rate is 5%. You can not get around that number by adding people who are not eligible to be counted. The economy may be weak but it is growing. We are not in a recession, we are not growing at a fast rate though. Nothing will change that fact. When the oil bubble bursts and the housing market corrects itself, the economy will start growing faster. So right now, we have to deal with what is given to us, not what a person wishes was the story.
If I was incoherent in the post I’m sorry, my blood began to boil again thinking about the &*$%@#@ (bad word) research. Hey, they could have given me the money they spent on the report and I could have told them in a couple of days, I would draw it out for show, that if you add prisoners to the the unemployment numbers it would show a larger percent of unemployed. Sheesh, such idiots, such lack of common sense. Give me a break.
I think part of my anger comes from the fact they spent good money to such a stupid research.
A comment about your claim that we’re not in a recession: I read this week’s Newsweek cover story and remarked on a couple of things.
1. The housing market is in a bad state. Case in point: we sold off my dad’s house last fall. Buyers came to the table with cash, it wasn’t on the market for more than two weeks. New owners fix it up to resell and finished in February. Yes the value went up, but it’s still ‘For Sale’ in June.
2. The rebate bill passed earlier this year will lose almost half of its return on higher costs of daily living like food. In other words, of a roughly $120 billion dollar return (total) making to the pockets of tax payers about $48 billion of that will be flushed away on staple products. The rest will be saved or spent later, it says. So don’t look for pressure relief there.
3. The monstrous oil issue. You mention when the oil bubble bursts, but this article questions the extent to which American habit changes will alter prices. Now we have two incipient economic powers in the form of India and China. And the truth is, they are “decoupling” from us. So unlike in the past when the price of oil fell as American use dropped back, now we put on the brakes but the momentum of the global consumer train keeps it movin’ forward.
Anyway, just some food for thought. Would like to know your reaction. Article is here for your enjoyment: http://www.newsweek.com/id/140553/page/1
I have no arguement about the rebates. We used our rebates to pay bills, something the governement didn’t want us to do with it. If the pass another one, like Obama has talked about, we will use that to pay bills and try to get ourselves out of debt. We, luckily, make enough money to pay the expenses we have monthly, except one bill. That we use any extra money we get to pay down. It is what it is though.
As far as the oil market, yes China and India are growing and asking for more oil. The problem with the market though is not shortage. It is over speculation by people wishing to make a buck. I don’t begrudge them their desire to make money. It is the capitalist way. Eventually though the artificial prices will burst, like the technology market in the late 90’s. The market can not sustain the drive up in prices forever. When the market bursts a lot of people will lose money.
The home market is in a similiar situation. Prices have been driven up by speculation. It will eventually burst also. As far as the low-interest loans that have been discussed in the media, the buyers should have realized their monthly rates would increase, because it was part of the contracts. It is their lack of foresite that caused the mortage crisis. The lenders were doing nothing wrong. If their is any fault on their part it is maybe giving loans to people who, have shown in the past, are credit risks. I don’t begrudge the companies their effort to make money. Again, it is the capitalist way, and I am all for that.
I forgot to mention the recession. The reports about economic growth shows we, as a nation, are still growing at just over 1%. It is still an increase. A recession is two or three consecutive quarters of negative growth, in otherwords, the shrinking of the economy. That is not happening yet. We may slip into one but, if you look historically, every ten years or so the economy does a downturn and makes corrections. I really beleive this is just one of those times of correction. In about a year the economy will start to hum again.
Another myth, the economic policies of the presidents don’t effect the economy immediately. Their policies usually take five-ten years to surge through the system. Even then, unless the president made major changes in the system, the economy is only slightly affected by the changes. The economy is huge, like a dragon, a pin prick isn’t going to immediately cause the beast to react. It takes a sword thrust, like 9/11 or price caps, to really make a direct effect on the economy.