Comments on: Unifying Leaders in Middle East and Asia http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/ Brian Baldowski Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:40:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 By: Jeremy Clifton http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-12 Jeremy Clifton Thu, 06 Dec 2007 15:03:56 +0000 http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-12 Oh, and additionally, the article "<a href="http://www.lewrockwell.com/engelhardt/engelhardt304.html" rel="nofollow">Why Bush Won't Leave Iraq</a>" is a pretty good explanation of why I feel like Iraq is a catch-22 situation. It does better at explaining it than I can ... Oh, and additionally, the article “Why Bush Won’t Leave Iraq” is a pretty good explanation of why I feel like Iraq is a catch-22 situation. It does better at explaining it than I can …

]]> By: Jeremy Clifton http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-11 Jeremy Clifton Thu, 06 Dec 2007 14:58:19 +0000 http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-11 And thus we have a catch-22 situation (at least in my opinion). We can't leave until we have a stable government. But, I don't think we'll get a stable government until we leave, because as long as we're keeping the peace (more or less ... and generally in Iraq it's less) and really calling the shots, the entity that we have mis-named the "Iraqi Government" will continue to not do much of anything useful. Of course, you may be right. But I've quit being optimistic with people, because I kept getting disappointed. :-) And thus we have a catch-22 situation (at least in my opinion). We can’t leave until we have a stable government. But, I don’t think we’ll get a stable government until we leave, because as long as we’re keeping the peace (more or less … and generally in Iraq it’s less) and really calling the shots, the entity that we have mis-named the “Iraqi Government” will continue to not do much of anything useful.

Of course, you may be right. But I’ve quit being optimistic with people, because I kept getting disappointed. :-)

]]> By: Brian Baldowski http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-10 Brian Baldowski Wed, 05 Dec 2007 21:26:46 +0000 http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-10 I agree to some extent with our hypothesis. The question then becomes how can we leave a situation we started without some form of stable government. Without an answer to that question I don't think we can leave. I still hold out hope that either a new figure arises that works with the US or that al Sadr can be useful subsitute. In Afghanistan I think the situation is much worse than in Iraq. They have a unifying figure in the Taliban government, Mullah Mohammed Omar. We shall see. I agree to some extent with our hypothesis. The question then becomes how can we leave a situation we started without some form of stable government. Without an answer to that question I don’t think we can leave. I still hold out hope that either a new figure arises that works with the US or that al Sadr can be useful subsitute. In Afghanistan I think the situation is much worse than in Iraq. They have a unifying figure in the Taliban government, Mullah Mohammed Omar. We shall see.

]]> By: Jeremy Clifton http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-9 Jeremy Clifton Wed, 05 Dec 2007 16:43:41 +0000 http://www.baldowski.org/2007/12/04/unifying-leaders-in-middle-east-and-asia/#comment-9 So, the big question is ... should we continue to prop up these governments that are failing? Is it likely that a unifying figure is going to come along? I think history shows us that a unifying figure will almost certainly come along. However, I expect the unifying figure won't be somebody that we as a nation will necessarily like. I would even argue that in Iraq, a unifying figure has already emerged ... Muqtada al Sadr. Of course, we don't particularly care for him. One real problem in Iraq is that there is only so much unification that can occur ... at the very least, we have the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Sh'ites. Either a leader from one group will rule at the expense of the others (Saddam Hussein), or the factions must unite. I'm not so sure any amount of American support and aid is going to coerce the Iraqis to unite (at least directly), especially given that by and large they resent our presence there. What will unite them is a common cause. Revolting against the Hussein government would have been such a common cause. If we hang around long enough and continue to breed resentment, then getting rid of the US will be a common cause ... one which we, of course, won't like too much. So, the big question is … should we continue to prop up these governments that are failing? Is it likely that a unifying figure is going to come along?

I think history shows us that a unifying figure will almost certainly come along. However, I expect the unifying figure won’t be somebody that we as a nation will necessarily like.

I would even argue that in Iraq, a unifying figure has already emerged … Muqtada al Sadr. Of course, we don’t particularly care for him.

One real problem in Iraq is that there is only so much unification that can occur … at the very least, we have the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Sh’ites. Either a leader from one group will rule at the expense of the others (Saddam Hussein), or the factions must unite. I’m not so sure any amount of American support and aid is going to coerce the Iraqis to unite (at least directly), especially given that by and large they resent our presence there. What will unite them is a common cause. Revolting against the Hussein government would have been such a common cause. If we hang around long enough and continue to breed resentment, then getting rid of the US will be a common cause … one which we, of course, won’t like too much.

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